By Carl Zebrowski
Editor

Jonathan Conricus, retired Israel Defense Forces lieutenant colonel, offered at least a bit of optimism to the nearly 150 Jewish Federation of the Lehigh Valley donors gathered at Temple Beth El September 10 to hear his insider’s take of the war in Israel.

Though the situation remains volatile and peace is not imminent, Israel will prevail, he said. “It is our home and we’re not going anywhere.” 

Then came the rest of his story of the rapidly changing and escalating situation. He quickly outlined the realities on the ground that day: Hamas was still holding 101 Israeli hostages; residents were still displaced from their homes in southern Israel, where the October 7 attacks occurred; 70,000 Israelis remain displaced from their homes in the north, near Lebanon and the Hezbollah terrorist group; and fighting continues on seven fronts, with most efforts still focused on Gaza. 

Then he offered another bit of positivity. “Over the last three weeks, we have been super fortunate,” he said. Five vehicles loaded with explosives were sent toward Israeli targets. “None of them succeeded,” he said.

“That’s why you haven’t heard about it. I’m happy that most of you are not aware of this.”

Conricus prefaced the rest of his talk with this: “I’m going to cut through a lot of nonsense and reckless media publications.” 

He described the situation with Hamas as “very volatile.” “All of Hamas’s military capability has been severely degraded,” he explained, but the terrorist organization was not yet defeated. Nor was the news for them all bad. “What has not changed significantly is their political control of the population,” he said. That remains solid.

Conricus believes it’s not to Hamas’s advantage to negotiate as its predicament worsens. “I personally do not believe that Hamas will do a hostage deal,” he said. Their goal is to buy time in hopes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government collapses. 

Once Hamas is defeated, he said, “there needs to be a political alternative.” Meanwhile, oversight of Gaza would be established during a transition period. “It’s called military rule,” he said.

That wouldn’t be the end of Israel’s troubles, however. Even with Hamas gone, there still would be Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is much stronger and more numerous.

It’s also much better supplied. “Amateurs talk about operations,” Conricus said, “and professionals talk about logistics.” Hezbollah’s supply line stretches all the way back to Iran.

Conricus didn’t have much positive to say about possible all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. He said the result would definitely not be good for Lebanon: “There won’t be anything left of it.”

“War between Israel and Hezbollah will be a very significant and horrible endeavor,” he said, “catastrophic for Lebanon, and very bad for Israel too.” He predicted “hundreds of casualties every day.” 

Since Hezbollah hides among the civilian population, he said, “Israel will retaliate in those areas. We know how the world responds when Jews fight for themselves.

“We see where the war is leading,” he said, “and we definitely don’t think it’s a good path.”

Conricus trained his focus on the power that fuels the proxy forces that fight Israel. “The common denominator between all of these enemies is the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said.

So far through the years of tension and conflict between Israel and Iran, Israel has largely limited its responses to attacks by Iran’s proxy forces to the forces that have made them. “Our actions have very conveniently fit into Iran’s strategy,” he said.

That strategy is to weaken Israel with continual attacks on it by proxy forces. Iran’s plan, if certain intelligence is correct, is to continue this until 2024, by which time it has assessed that Israel would be seriously depleted. “They plan to destroy Israel at that time,” Conricus said.

He said Israel needs to recalibrate. “Now is a great opportunity for Israel to change strategy,” he said. He specified that Israel needs to announce a new policy to hold Iran fully responsible for any attacks on Israel by its proxies and to reserve the option to respond directly.

The cumulative effects of the ongoing current war, the destruction and the stress in Israel, has a ripple effect through the Diaspora, he said. “Israel understands pretty clearly that we have to brace ourselves for a long and challenging fight,” he continued. “Those in Israel will be fighting in real life, and Jews around the world will have to deal with consequences. I think it’s very important that Jews around the world get organized.”

Training his point on the audience before him, he said: “The key here is influence in American politics.” As opinions change in local and national government, he said, much of the media tends to follow along. National strategy gets reconfigured.

* The Jewish Federation is pleased to have partnered with the Israel advocacy organization Stand with Us to present this event. Special thanks to event chairs Eileen Fischmann, Eileen Ufberg, and Vicki Wax.